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American Politics 110 Exam 2
Why has Polarization increased?
Is it rational to vote?
American Politics 110 Exam 2
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1
Is it rational to vote?
if voting is instrumental it's irrational
if voting is expressive it's irrational
if voting is instrumental it's rational
if voting is expressive it's rational
2
Why has Polarization increased?
Voters do not tolerate unethical behavior against the other party.
Politicians propose policies that line up with their party + median voters
Politicians are less likely to compromise and find solutions
No
3
Non-Attitudes/Unformed Opinions
How important an issue is to an individual
Political opinions that are unexpressed have potential to become manifest
deeply held opinion that is stable over time
An opinion formed on the spot, when it is needed
4
Why do we identify w/ groups? Huddy and Bankert reading
because america is all about gathering together for freedom
Like supporting a team voters want to be a part of something
because we like being on our own
because we are insecure and need guidance from political leads
5
Collective Action Problems w/ Voting
your vote doesn't change anything so you have the incentive to freeride
your vote matters so free riding is not an incentive
your vote does change everything so you have the incentive to freeride
due to ones self interest, voting is an incentive
6
Reasons to trust the media as an agent working for us
only shows one point of view
Exposes bad agents
employees separate hard news and opinion-based news
hard news and soft news is mixed
7
What are their goals?
policies that favor their groups
don't upset other groups
win elections
to have everyone hate the other side is their one goal
8
Downside of Parties
so maybe a faction working w/ others can dominate after all
it causes peace and rest for all parties
They demonize the other party to make them appear weak on Valence Issues
They love working w/ the other party to find compromises.
9
Framing & The Flu Virus Experiment
outcome showed that uncertainty was favored
system 2 thinking is prominitly used in this experiment
Politicans don't fall for framing
system 1 thinking People don’t choose the outcome that maximizes utility
10
What are critiques of MVT parties?
Temporarily playing the middle man when in reality in office they are bias
government officials are too honest with voters and it makes it unfair
this theory forces government officials to target extreme voters
it gives the swing voters an unfair advantage over other voters
11
Parties & Coordination Problem in Elections
running against the same party doesn't take votes away from you
if the president is running against opposing parties = lose
if the president is running against a member of the same party = lose
if the president is running against a member of their same party = win
12
Do the coalitions change?
No
Yes
No
Yes
13
2 Types of Polarization
More disagreement between partisans on issues
respect of the other party
More dislike of the other party
more agreement between partisans on issues
14
Reasons to not trust the media as an agent working for us
Exposes bad agents
Reporters are mostly heavily left
Favor their audience readers
Favor their financial supporter's bias in favor of wealthy
15
How has the media environment changed since the Founding?
There is more soft news which is good
it has decreased in bias since media became the main source of news
They worry about Media Bias and Lies And therefore don’t trust the Agent
they worry about media bias which allows for open thinking
16
4 Main Sources of Political Attitudes explaining the party we identify with
events
politicians
group identity
Socialization
17
Expressive voting? Huddy and Bankert reading
partnerships allow for everyone's votes to be heard
voting based on emotion or rooting for ones team
partnerships' goals are not to get the most votes
voting based on fact
18
What’s the effect of identifying with groups? Huddy and Bankert reading
resolves unstable coalitions: hot-button topics work together
doesn't minimize social choice
resolve coordination problem:to have the party win by grouping politicians
decreases turnout for voters
19
4 Main Sources of Political Attitudes
Events, group identity, upbringing/political socialization, politicians
politcal campains, social upbringing, events, and advertising
advertising, socialization, group identity, upbringing
Other countries, Cottonwood, your mom, dab
20
How biased is hard news journalism?
:(
not biased
very biased
:)
21
Overcoming Directional Motivated Reasoning
don't be meek
embrace only your side even if it means your wrong
consider both sides even if you may disagree
abandon all rational thought
22
Sample Size & Sampling Error
Temporary accuracy in a data poll from a random selection
Not likely to hold up in a larger population
any member of the population had an equal chance of being selected
An error in the random selection
23
Effects of Presidency on Other Elections
those who hate the president will vote for that president again
Those who are upset with the current president are most motivated to vote
those who are happy with the president are more motivated to vote
those who are upset with the current president are less motivated to vote
24
overcoming Unstable Coalitions
create an agenda setterex: speaker of the house or senate majority leader
forming a coalition w/ politicans who have the same view + minimum winning
others make your ideals unstable it is not overcome through others
can overcome by strictly working within your team
25
Ideology
a mindset for people who are voting
Conservative: Generally favor traditional policies and social norms
Liberal: Generally favor policies that increase equality of outcomes.
The smallest size coalition necessary to achieve a goal.
26
How many parties will there be in the US?
3
5
4
2
27
More polls/surveys & accuracy
Polls are 100% accurate on one survey
This is one way to increase sampling size Look at averages of many polls
Polls are often not a good predictor until 30 days out from election
Random Sample, Social desirability bias, unformed predict accuracy poll
28
Which groups are in each party’s coalition?
Republic: ProGun rightsLower taxesSocial conservativesFarmingFree trade
Democrat ProGun rightsLower taxesSocial conservativesFarmingfree trade
Republic Becoming more democratic, Environmental groups, Planned Parenthood
Democrat Becoming more democratic, Environmental groups, Planned Parenthood
29
How does The Electoral College work?
has 2 votes for pres. + vice pres. based on the popular vote in their state
each has 1 vote for pres. + vice pres. based on popular vote in each state
has 1 vote for pres. but not vice president because their state votes on it
each has 3 votes for pres. + vice pres.
30
Why do we still have the Electoral College?)
because it lets the higher populated states dominate
allows someone to win the presidency but lose the Popular Vote
allows the strictly republican and democrat states to switch
the system crushes swing states
31
Best example for Social Desirability Bias,
Favor their audience readers
Posting something on Instagram telling people they can only think this way
when they say they voted, but in fact didn't vote
Hard news reporting is being mixed with opinion-based news
32
Instrumental voting? Huddy and Bankert reading
voting based on emotion or rooting for ones team
voting based on facts
partnerships' goals are not to get the most votes
partnerships allow for everyone's votes to be heard
33
Social Identity Theory, Norms, & Voting
people love stand alone
utility benefits
people hate to identify with groups
social pressure to do our civic duty and vote
34
Valence Issues
Candidates have two elections to win
issues that only one person gets something in return
emphasize hot button issues (i.e., emotionally charged ones)
issues or general principles where everyone wants the same thing.
35
Cognative Bias
Is a bias in media that only politicians are affected by
affect judgment, human perception, memory, decision-making, behavior
shortcuts which lead to bias, but can't ever be avoided
human information processing system shortcuts and rule of thumb=distortion
36
Media Bubbles & Polarization
people have an easy time finding none polarized opinions
people only line up with the views that line up opposite of their views
polarized opinions have decreased
people only search for the news that lines up with their own views
37
paradox voting
= cost of voting * benefits - probability of being pivotal
= cost of voting * benefits - cost of voting
= benefits * probability of being pivotal - cost of voting
= probability of being pivotal * benefits - cost of voting
38
Thinking Fast
allows us to have a open mindset
a good thing in our democracy because it allows people to be more decisive
Doesn't cloud our perspective because our opinion is always right
exposed to cognitive biases due to needed reliance on mental shortcuts
39
cognitive dissonance
Bias to one party when selecting
consistent beliefs and ideals
An opinion formed on the spot, when it is needed
inconsistent beliefs and ideals just to support ones side
40
The “Fundamentals” of Predicting Presidential Election Results
politician re-running for their seat they will lose 2/3 times
if the economy sucks the president will probably win
if you live in a very republican state it will probably be deomcratic
4 factors matter: Economic conditions, Who’s the incumbent, living district
41
Benefits of Parties
solves collective dilemma: where there is a conflict between group goals
solve coordination problem: groups that are better off helping each other
solves unstable coalition:collective choice, but is divided by another vote
politico is at rest
42
How/Why do coalitions form?
location of capital, financial issues (national bank)
Civil War, industrialization
size and scope of federal government
Slavery, (Farmers vs. merchants)
43
Rational Ignorance
thinking your vote will not make a difference
thinking your vote will make a difference
your mom
thinking you have minimal impact when voting
44
Minimum Winning Coalitions
others make your ideals unstable it is not overcome through others
having a leader that takes the winnnings of the coaltion
making smaller size coalition to get the biggest benefits per person
making bigger groups so that everyone wins the minimul amount
45
Utility Function of Vote Choice for Expressive Partisanship
voting for Democratic Candidate = (D)policies that benefit you
voting for Republican Candidate = (R)policies that benefit you
voting for Republican Candidate= Joy for rooting for (Rep) or against (Dem)
voting for Democratic Candidate= Joy for rooting for (Dem) or against (Rep)
46
Version 1 of Calculus of Voting (Instrumental Voting)
doesn't include paradox voting
its rational to vote
second step in instrumental voting
its irrational to vote
47
Hostile Media Effect
the tendency to see biased news and biased news
makes people distrust bias news more than they should
makes people distrust hard (neutral) news more than they should
the tendency of people to see neutral news as neutral news
48
Evidence for Expressive Partisanship
Schools
Holocaust
equality
Disneyland
49
Who is more likely to vote?
republicans in a democratic state
steak holders, people who benefit from the win: elderly
democrats in a republican state
people who hate the current president
50
Median Voter Theorem
Meh..
the middle person is the least important
Voters choose the candidate whose preferences are closest to their own
candidates choose the middleman (swing voters) to win an election
51
How does MVT apply to parties?
general elections
primary elections
Valence Issues
Hotbutton topics
52
Best example of Question Wording
Do you approve or disapprove...
Do you support or oppose...
Do you favor...
Start with the issue itself then ask the question
53
Utility Function of Vote Choice for Instrumental Partisanship
voting for Democratic Candidate= Joy for rooting for (Dem) or against (Rep)
voting for Republican Candidate= Joy for rooting for (Rep) or against (Dem)
voting for Republican Candidate = (R)policies that benefit you
voting for Democratic Candidate = (D)policies that benefit you
54
Why can someone lose popular vote but win the Electoral College?
because they are cool
because they won the swing states
because they only one the strong democrat states which there are more of
because they lost the swing states
55
Directional Motivated Reasoning
reasoning affected by a desire to reach a certain goal or conclusion
most common reasoning in social science
A desire to reach the best or most accurate conclusion
desire to reach a conclusion that is the same as your existing belief
56
Receive-Accept-Sample Model
Favor their audience readers
Made of two parts Persuasive + cueing
This is s a message sent from a republican official
Ex: you should support this because it will boost GDP for you hired workers
57
Random Sample
any member of the population had an equal chance of being selected
sampling from several different groups with their knowledge of what wanted
Bias to one party when selecting
seems random, but leaning more toward a group of people
58
Version 2 of Calculus of Voting (Expressive Voting)
it can be rational to vote if you get utility from the act
:)
it can be irrational to vote if you get utility from the act
:)
59
Salience
Political opinions that are unexpressed have potential to become manifest
deeply held opinion that is stable over time
An opinion formed on the spot, when it is needed
How important an issue is to an individual
60
Thinking Slow
use this part of the system to justify our fast thinking through shortcuts
allows us to have a open mindset
is backed up by thinking fast
is our first initial reaction with research and thinking
61
Plurality vs. Ranked Choice
There is no credible evidence of massive voter fraud
Mail-in votes increase turnout, but also the number of rejected ballots
unclear that mail-in voting or voter ID laws advantage a party
Parties help avoid a coordination problem in general elections
62
Are interest groups representative of Americans?
when politicians run against the same party they are less representative
politicians are representative; they are trying to win the swing groups
sometimes, they only cater to winning elections and don't represent
every time, what politicians say on the stand they have to follow through