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Judgement
Judgement
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Lecture 6 of spring term PY2CG
Flashcards
31 cards
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Practice quiz
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Questions
31
Answers
1
Which of the following is a defective frequency?
3 out of 5... 88 out of 95... among 100...
5 out of 100
amoung 100 ptt
2
Which of the following is an example of an availability heuristic?
I hear alot about shark attacks,so it must cause many deaths
In Uganda 48% of the population is under 15yo
"16 & pregnant" show caused teenage pregnancies to drop 5.7%
3
What did DR's say about a low-risk HIV patient who had a positive result?
There are no false positives
It is a false positive
He did not have HIV
4
Why is this method easier?
We see frequencies in everyday life
we are taught natural frequencies at school
we don't know why
Easier to make into a stem & leaf diagram
5
Which did people think totaled to a higher number?
1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1
6
What is the actual chance of a false positive HIV test?
1/99
10/90
30/70
50/50
7
Why do people make this wrong assumption?
They ignore probability
They focus too much on high probability
They use representativeness from the media
They focus too much on low probability
8
Chances are ____ that can be broken down into stem & leaf diagrams.
single event probabilities
secretly %
just another method
9
What is the probability?
we don't know - it's too ill-specified
99%
70%
67%
10
Probability info is always bad.
False
True
11
Which of the following formats improved the amount of correct answers?
10% of women
1/3rd of women
10 out of 100 women
12
Why can frequencies be defective?
Bad structure
too exact numbers
too many samples used
Bad format
13
Why did they choose this?
They anchor to a lower number when it starts with a low num
They anchor to a higher number when it starts with a high no
14
This is despite the fact the information is ______.
emotional
contextual
irrelevant
relevant
15
Ptt will report that this is ___%, when actually it is ____%.
80%, 7.8%
60%, 40%
50%, 10%
7.8%, 80%
16
Which of the following is a representativeness heuristic?
"It's cloud outside, It must be about to rain"
"heart disease is the biggest killer"
"the exam is going to be easy"
17
What did Slovic et al (1979) find was overestimated due to the media?
heart disease
cancer
murder
plane crashes
18
Which of the following is
NOT
a basis of heuristics?
emotion
representativeness
anchoring
availability
19
Does the letter 'r' appear more often 1st or 3rd in English words?
1st
3rd
20
Why is this? / What is the conjunction fallacy?
Linda can't be a feminist
conjunction of 2 events can't be more likely than its parts
A person can't be two things
Linda can't be a bank teller
21
Bayesian reasoning problems suggest that ptt will ignore the ____ when given ____ information.
base rate, stereotypical
logical answer, stereotypical
base rate, discriminative
base rate, logical
22
What is this due to?
representativness
Anchoring
availability
23
And what did they find was underestimated?
heart disease
stomach cancer
emphysema
bowel cancer
24
Misunderstandings are common in...
naive & expert ptt
expert ptt
naive ptt
25
What is judgement?
reasoning about statistics in the real world
making a choice randomly
forming an opinion
the ability to make decisions and get the best outcome
26
Which option did most ptt choose, due to the availability heuristic? (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974)
1st
3rd
27
An example of this is Kahneman & Tvserky's (1973)...
photographers & artists
feminists & bank tellers
Lawyers & engineers
artists & lawyers
28
Given which piece of information would lead ptt to estimate higher causes of death?
50,000 by motor accidents
1,000 by electrocution
29
If you had 1% chance of buying a cat each year, what would your 10 year cumulative risk be?
9.56%
1%
99%
100%
30
Which option do most people choose
last
in response to the Linda problem? (Conjunction fallacy)
Linda is a bank teller/ feminist
Linda is a bank teller
Linda is active in the feminist movement
31
What is this called?
naive probability
no probability
just probability
